California wildfires will happen again. Must urban firestorms ensue?
Firefighters and academics offer some very practical suggestions for coping with both inevitable and “evitable” risk.
Rob James
It will happen here again:
Reflecting on the LA fires and what they mean for fire prevention
January 23, 2025
[Notes by Rob James. Not legal advice! Consult your own attorney.]
David Shew, Napa County Fire
Mark Brown, Marin County Fire
Michael Wara, Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability
Derek Fong, Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability
INEVITABILITY COUPLED WITH NEW RISK
In one sense, the risk of fires in both northern and southern California has existed for millennia. We live in a natural fire environment, with a basically arid climate combined with dense plant growth amid grasslands and canyons. We are experiencing what is called a “hydroclimate whiplash,” with droughts interspersed with wet periods that drive lush growth followed by a drying out to perfect tinder and kindling habitats.
No one should be surprised. There were catastrophic fires in 1923, when a fire basically took out Marin County from Bolinas on the coast to Ignacio on San Pablo Bay, and a large part of the Oakland Hills. https://www.marinfirehistory.org/1923-wildfires-including-ignacio-to-bolinas-ridge-fairfax.html But Marin County and the East Bay, prior to construction of the Golden Gate Bridge and Bay Bridge, were not densely populated with people (probably more cattle). Down south, the Los Angeles Griffith Park fire of 1933 took 29 lives. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1933_Griffith_Park_fire
There was mostly inattention to fires during the great California growth spurt of the 1920s through the 1980s, until the Oakland Hills fire of 1991 and the San Diego fires of the 1990s. We have built so far into what was previously wild that we have consumed what used to be buffer land with suburban and exurban subdivisions.
In another sense, the risk has dramatically increased with climate change. Warmer air means the air can accommodate more moisture, and more water evaporates from the land, leaving the dead plant matter drier and more combustible than ever. (The winters of 2022 and 2023 were unusually wet and the summer and fall of 2024 were extremely dry—do the math, the result is lots of dry fuel.) Politicians may deny the impact of climate change, but just ask the insurance companies and policyholders (see below).
RESILIENCE
Wildfires are inevitable, but urban firestorms can be resisted or their damage reduced. The fire professionals’ job is not just to fight the flames but to face the inevitable conflagrations and reduce their severity. They seek to protect existing environment and to build more resilient environment. It is a job that exists home by home and neighborhood by neighborhood. “Your homes are the fuel.”
Consider the famous Red Roof of Lahaina—the one home, a wooden house, that was unscathed by the Maui firestorm of 2023. Why did it survive? That red roof was a metal roof, replacing several layers of the original wood shingles; there was an air space between the roof and the building; there was no vegetation next to the house to catch embers and burst into flame adjacent to the walls; the base layer was stone rather than wood; and resilient palm trees absorbed much of the heat and risk. And there was some considerable luck involved, including the buffer property next door. Still, it shows the impact of changes to the surroundings on the survival of your property. The message is to avoid “learned helplessness”—you can take actions ahead of time.
The fire folks often use military terms like “home hardening” and “ember attack.” That’s unfortunate because they collide with our attachment to our homes as warm cozy places with beautiful aesthetics. Stanford is sponsoring a landscaper hackathon with designs for fire resistant environments that look good and that are consistent with the arid California climate.
The resilience job locally is to stop the path of fire from embers, radiant heat and flames to the home that is the source of fuel for further fire. “Zone Zero” means five feet of zero fuel source next to your house. As opposed to juniper bushes with mulch right up to the walls like the typical suburban homes. Siding should stop six inches before ground level to stop embers from immediately connecting to the house proper. All-wood fencing should be interrupted every once in a while with metal materials (which can be painted to blend in with deer fencing and the like), as metal in many cases will stop fencing across urban-rural divides from acting like a long “wood fuse” bringing fire to your back door.
The experts say sprinklers don’t have a great impact on survival. Solar panels have not proven to be a factor one way or the other. Gutter guards help keep combustible material away from the house.
Doing things across an entire neighborhood is even better than just improving your own home. A list of vendors and products is available at the NFPA Firewise and Cal Fire websites.
SAFE EVACUATION
The fire professionals have many recommendations for evacuation planning and execution.
Yes, yes, you should have a bug-out bag. But more than that, be proactive and don’t wait for an evacuation order. Be alert for alerts and warnings. If it is a “red flag” day, be mindful, be reachable, listen to media, fill your gas tank or charge your EV, put the bug-out bag in your car, even back your car in so it’s ready to bolt. If it’s a really red flag day, consider taking that trip to your in-laws and stay somewhere else. If an evacuation warning happens, bug out then, don’t wait for a mandate.
The fire folks hate the TV stations continuously showing dramatic video of a car burning. They say for every car that is burning there are twenty cars that aren’t. Firefighters retreat to their vehicle for safety—it’s the safest place to be compared to open flames and smoke and falling embers and debris. Take your damn car. Your vehicle is your friend. Many hours of precious firefighter time were wasted bulldozing perfectly fine abandoned cars out of the way.
The constant refrain is to go down hill—keep evacuating to lower ground. Ahead of time, visualize your exit route. It’s probably the route you take to the grocery store, work, or school. If you have multiple routes, is one multiple lane and less likely to be a traffic jam?
INSURANCE
Insurance works when risks are spread out among properties of the same risk class, for casualties that affect those properties in an uncorrelated matter. The insurance concept is sorely tested when all the insured properties burn.
Homeowners’ insurance is required for mortgages and a good idea for protecting your major asset. These folks say that the California insurance commissioner limited premiums likely below the true experience-based risk exposure the companies had. That’s changed recently with major increases in premiums and the rollback of some insurers from the California market. There is something called a “Sustainable Insurance Strategy.”
The path out calls for some form of public reinsurance, but that requires individuals to prudently buy their own layer of primary coverage.
Insurers are getting more sophisticated, with drone flyovers for roof and foliage conditions to evaluate underwriting and renewal decisions. They may deny you coverage because your neighbor is reckless, even if you’ve done all you can for your house.
These folks say that private firefighters may be associated with up to 50% of home value in some parts of California. A lot of the private efforts are associated with cutting back brush ahead of time, consistent with Zone Zero, and clearing fuel breaks in an actual fire.
REFERENCES
The program provided a number of helpful links.
• Event Page (Speaker Bios & More): Webinar Event Page
• David Shew, Fire Administrator, Napa County Napa County Fire Administrator Bio
• Mark Brown, Executive Officer, Marin Wildfire Prevention Authority Marin Wildfire Prevention Authority
• Michael Wara, Senior Research Scholar, and Director, Climate and Energy Program, Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University Woods Institute for the Environment - Climate & Energy
• Napa Communities Firewise Foundation Napa Communities Firewise
• Fire Marshal's Office | Napa County, CA Napa County Fire Marshal's Office
• Marin Wildfire Prevention Authority Marin Wildfire Prevention Authority
• FireSafe Marin FireSafe Marin
• NFPA | National Fire Protection Association NFPA
• Firewise Communities Firewise USA
• CA FireSafe Council CA FireSafe Council
• Wildfire Prepared Home, a Program of IBHS Wildfire Prepared Home Resources
• California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (CAL FIRE) CAL FIRE